Assessments for Cambria’s Emergency Evacuation Planning

This report covers the third study of fire evacuation in Cambria conducted by Dr. Cornelius Nuworsoo, professor of City and Regional Planning at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. It is a follow-up to evacuation analyses conducted in 2019 for two parts of Cambria – areas south of Fiscalini Ranch and West of Highway 1, and areas east of Highway 1. With this study, Cambria now has analyses for all of Cambria under scenarios for different potential evacuation areas and alternate evacuation routes. Grant from CalFire funded the studies. The new evacuation assessment, like the earlier ones, is designed to model the traffic movement that would occur during the rapid evacuation of large parts of Cambria during a major wildfire emergency. As with the other studies, it assumes that residential units and visitor lodgings are fully occupied, and that each household would evacuate with two vehicles, on average. All vehicle types in the traffic stream are converted to passenger car equivalents to account for buses, trailers, recreational vehicles, and commercial trucks in the traffic stream. Trucks count for three passenger cars and RVs for two. It further assumes that through traffic on Highway 1 would be at normal levels before additional traffic is generated by evacuation from Cambria. This assumption adds the equivalent of 500 passenger cars on Highway 1 during the period of evacuation. Only southbound evacuation is modeled in all scenarios. Note that this analysis, though assuming maximum traffic, is not able to predict the potential for other factors to impede evacuation, such as poor visibility due to smoke, nighttime conditions or fallen trees, stalled cars, and other potential obstructions. In addition to scenarios based on using Highway 1 in its normal two-lane configuration (with one lane each southbound and northbound), this study also analyzes scenarios with alternate evacuation routes, as well as a second southbound lane added to Highway 1 from Ardath Drive to Highway 46. One alternate route is the existing emergency access road across the Fiscalini Ranch Preserve from Seaclift Estates to Marine Terrace. The other is a possible emergency access route from Marine Terrace to Highway 1 south of Highway 46. Labeled the “Beach Road” in the study, this route would follow the existing four-wheel-drive track through the Norris Rancho Marino Preserve and other properties to an existing private road, Harmony Ranch Road, which serves several residences on the coast and joins Highway 1 south of the Highway 46 junction. It is important to note that, at this point, public agencies have not made arrangements with the property owners for use of the route, nor have they secured funding to improve it for passenger-car travel. The study analyzes these five new scenarios: Evacuate Park Hill and Moonstone Beach areas toward the south using one southbound lane on Highway 1. Evacuate Cambria west of Highway 1 (Lodge Hill, Marine Terrace, Park Hill and Moonstone Beach) toward the south using two southbound lanes on Highway 1 from Ardath Drive to Highway 46. Evacuate all neighborhoods toward the south using two southbound lanes on Highway 1 from Ardath Drive to Highway 46. Evacuate Park Hill and Moonstone Beach toward the south across the existing emergency access route on the Fiscalini Ranch Preserve, continuing through Marine Terrace to the end of Ardath Drive, then on to Highway 1 via the Beach Road. Evacuate both Lodge Hill and Marine Terrace toward the south using two routes: Highway 1 with one southbound lane, and the Beach Road to Highway 1 from the end of Ardath Drive in Marine Terrace. In Scenario 5, the evacuation traffic would be divided along a line running northwest to southeast along Trenton Ave. and Norwich Ave. in lower Lodge Hill. Residents to west of that line would take the Beach Road route. Those to the east would evacuate via Highway 1. In addition to these five scenarios, the study includes results (Scenarios 6 & 7) from the two previous studies, as well as modeling (Scenario 8) for all neighborhoods. Scenario 8 incorporates data from all three of the studies assuming the worst possible scenario of evacuating the entire Cambria community via a single southbound lane on Highway 1. Among its key findings, the new study shows that an added southbound lane on Highway 1 from Ardath Drive to Highway 46 -- the “critical segment” on which all traffic would have to travel --would not have a significant impact on overall evacuation times. For instance, the evacuation of all Cambria neighborhoods using two southbound lanes between Ardath and Highway 46 (Scenario 3) would take the same total time (6.8 hours) as full evacuation with one southbound lane only (Scenario 8). Travel time on that critical and final segment of Highway 1 would be half as long (albeit at nearly three times the hourly capacity of the highway in the southbound direction) in Scenario 3, but time spent reaching that final segment would negate the advantage of the two-lane option. Extending the two-lane option further north (see recommendations, below) would be at least a partial solution to this problem. Also, using alternate routes – the Fiscalini Ranch emergency road and the proposed “Beach Road” from Marine Terrace to Highway 1 south of Highway 46 – would not offer a significant advantage over Highway 1 in evacuation of the Park Hill and Moonstone Beach neighborhoods. (See Scenarios 1 and 4 in Table 1). On the other hand, the “Beach Road” option would substantially improve evacuation times from Marine Terrace and Lodge Hill (west of Highway 1) if traffic from that area were split between the Beach Road and Highway 1 (Scenario 5). Total evacuation time would be 1.8 hours, in contrast to over 4 hours as modeled in the 2019 analysis of this area. The study’s results are summarized in Table 1 of the report, with additional information in Tables 2, 3 and 4. In conclusion, the study recommends: Establishing the Beach Road as an additional exit route. Designating the Beach Road for use by those in the southwest area of Cambria (western Lodge Hill and Marine Terrace). Widening and strengthening shoulders on Highway 1 to enable an improvised second southbound exit lane during emergencies. Extending the improvised second southbound lane further north on Highway 1, ideally as far as the intersection with Cambria Pines Road

Proactive Assessment of Accident Risk to Improve Safety on a System of Freeways, Research Report 11-15

This report describes the development and evaluation of real-time crash risk-assessment models for four freeway corridors: U.S. Route 101 NB (northbound) and SB (southbound) and Interstate 880 NB and SB. Crash data for these freeway segments for the 16-month period from January 2010 through April 2011 are used to link historical crash occurrences with real-time traffic patterns observed through loop-detector data. \u27The crash risk-assessment models are based on a binary classification approach (crash and non-crash outcomes), with traffic parameters measured at surrounding vehicle detection station (VDS) locations as the independent variables. The analysis techniques used in this study are logistic regression and classification trees. Prior to developing the models, some data-related issues such as data cleaning and aggregation were addressed. The modeling efforts revealed that the turbulence resulting from speed variation is significantly associated with crash risk on the U.S. 101 NB corridor. The models estimated with data from U.S. 101 NB were evaluated on the basis of their classification performance, not only on U.S. 101 NB, but also on the other three freeway segments for transferability assessment. It was found that the predictive model derived from one freeway can be readily applied to other freeways, although the classification performance decreases. The models that transfer best to other roadways were determined to be those that use the least number of VDSs–that is, those that use one upstream or downstream station rather than two or three.\ The classification accuracy of the models is discussed in terms of how the models can be used for real-time crash risk assessment. The models can be applied to developing and testing variable speed limits (VSLs) and ramp-metering strategies that proactively attempt to reduce crash risk

Integration of Bicycling and Walking Facilities into the Infrastructure of Urban Communities, Research Report 11-05

Several manuals, handbooks and web resources exist to provide varied guidance on planning for and designing bicycle and pedestrian facilities, yet there are no specific indications about which of the varied treatments in these guides work well for users. This project highlights best practices and identifies program characteristics associated with high levels of non-motorized travel, with an emphasis on bicyclists and pedestrians. It highlights practices in the California communities of Davis, Palo Alto and San Luis Obispo. The case studies are used to illustrate how urban communities have integrated non-motorized transportation modes into the physical infrastructure and worked to educate community residents and employees. The most salient themes that emerged from this study are linked to the following user preference: (a) distance to desired land uses and activities; (b) route directness; (c) route connectivity; (d) the separation of motorized and non-motorized transportation modes; (e) safety; (f) convenience; and (g) education and outreach. The aforementioned themes are integrated into key guiding principles that correspond to the trip-making cycle, from the decision to engage in an activity through the choice of route to arrival at the destination

Deep Discount Group Pass Programs as Instruments for Increasing Transit Revenue and Ridership

Transit properties in the USA have historically experienced loss of market share and low levels of farebox recovery. They resorted to service expansion to maximize subsidies. Experience suggests that: (a) fare increases have not had the desired effect; (b) fare reductions can boost ridership but can also reduce revenue and increase subsidies. The challenge lies with the adoption of such strategies as deep discount group pass programs that can produce more marginal revenue than cost. Deep discount transit pass programs provide groups of people with unlimited-ride transit passes in exchange for a contractual payment for or on behalf of pass users by an employer or other organizing body. Although successes of deep discount group pass programs are documented, there is substantial skepticism toward their wide-scale deployment because transit management perceives them as “special treatments” or “favors” to participants. Management fears such perception could raise questions about equity because they fail to see the fundamental difference in the fare structure of the “group pass” from individual ticket purchases. Group passes operate in a manner analogous to insurance programs. The deep discount program cases studied consistently revealed either higher revenues per boarding than the system-wide average or higher total revenues from target markets with the program than without it. Employment-based programs yielded the highest net revenues to operators. Although agencies recognize the factors for price determination, research reveals that no systematic methodology exists and pass prices are largely determined by watching what others have done. This dissertation has developed a methodology to aid operators in determining deeply discounted but favorable pass prices. The methodology considers: revenue lost from existing riders at prevailing fares; level of patronage in the primary location of transit use; any additional costs necessitated by the program; attractiveness of program terms to participants; and a policy goal of increasing operating revenue. The methodology permits the investigation of alternative objective functions and thus can serve as a common tool for transit agencies, employers and other constituents who may choose to maximize or minimize either the price of the pass or the number of participants subject to sets of constraints

Form-based codes: An overview of the literature

Urban form, sustainability, community vision, place specificity, code document clarity, and efficiency of the development process are identified as the essential themes behind form-based codes by Evan Evangelopoulos and Cornelius Nurworsoo. The authors note the need to develop measurable parameters to better study these themes and understand the impact of form-based codes in their effort to reform US cities and move them away from Euclidian zoning

Equity Impacts of Transit Fare Proposals: A Case Study of AC Transit

Faced with budget shortfalls, Oakland’s AC Transit proposed five alternative fare structures combining base fare hikes or reductions, eliminating free transfers, and discontinuing passes. Using onboard survey data, we analyzed impacts of proposals on groups of riders, evaluated equity impacts, and estimated potential fare revenues. Policies that eliminated passes or transfers produced dramatically unequal impacts on lower income riders, youth, and minorities. Flat fares were least equitable even with base fare reductions because less affluent riders made more frequent trips and transfers than the more affluent. The most equitable and profitable proposals adjusted existing fare structures

Cost per User as Key Factor in Project Prioritization: A Case Study of the San Francisco Bay Area

Efforts to accommodate increasing and dispersed demand for travel in the face of mounting traffic congestion, escalating construction costs, limited rights of way, and diminished air quality have caused planning agencies to adopt plans that would enhance transit choices. Faced with fiscal limitations, the need to prioritize the ever-growing list of improvement projects is paramount. To meet this need in the development of the Bay Area System Plan for Regional Express Bus Service in California, a survey of existing literature on capital investment prioritization in transportation was conducted. This review led to development of a simple prioritization methodology with which to analyze the projects. Unit costs per ride were calculated to facilitate comparisons between the various proposals. The cost estimation procedure involved a systematic sequence of analyses that included the development and quantification of conceptual design elements, application of unit capital as well as operation and maintenance costs, and matching of annualized costs with annual ridership to derive costs per affected ride. Results revealed that the greater majority of proposed improvements could be implemented at a relatively low total cost. The estimates also suggest that most proposed improvements will not add very significant additional costs per ride to existing operations. The case study demonstrates the utility of projects and illustrates an approach that could be used by other agencies

Reverse Commuting and Job Access in California: Markets, Needs and Policy Prospects

Getting to work, keeping appointments, and taking advantage of employment support services require suitable transportation. Many low-income Californians do not own cars and, outside of large metropolitan areas, public transit services are often sparse or non-existent, making it difficult for jobless individuals to make the transition from welfare-to-work. The challenges are especially great for those trying to get from central-city residences to suburban jobs, so-called reverse commuters, since public transportation services have traditionally been aligned in the opposite direction. Propelling the growth in reverse commuting has been a number of powerful megatrends. Topping the list has been decentralization of employment, spawned by such factors as cheaper real estate prices on the outskirts and telecommunication advances that have allowed suburban back-offices to easily communicate with central-city core offices. Spatial mismatches have been blamed for the persistent problem of concentrated unemployment in California’s inner cities. Those with minimal education and work skills are increasingly isolated from the many entry-level and service-sector jobs in the suburbs. Many inner-city residents with suburban jobs work late-hour shifts and on weekends, periods when many buses and trains do not operate. This study: (1) defines the existing reverse-commute marketplace in California; (2) identifies and evaluates existing public transportation services in terms of their success and responsiveness in serving reverse-commute and job-access demands; (3) examines unmet mobility needs; and (4) proposes policy initiatives and strategies that hold promise for significantly improving reverse-commute services throughout the state